Afternoon Futures Market Fell Below the Daily Average Line, Intraday Most-Traded BC Copper Futures Rose Slightly by 0.29% [SMM BC Copper Commentary]

       Today, the international copper 2505 contract opened at 71,480 yuan/mt, closing with a bullish candlestick as the upper shadow pierced through the Bollinger upper band. Overnight, the most-traded BC copper 2505 contract opened lower with a gap, hitting an intraday low of 71,230 yuan/mt at the beginning of trading before fluctuating upward. During the daytime session, bulls pushed prices up rapidly to an intraday high of 71,890 yuan/mt. In the afternoon, the futures market fluctuated downward, falling below the daily average line and eventually closing at 71,550 yuan/mt, up 0.29%. Trading volume reached 4,438 lots, and open interest stood at 9,474 lots, an increase of 69 lots compared to the previous trading day.

       Macro side, US February retail sales month-on-month recorded 0.2%, below the expected growth of 0.6%, with the previous value revised down from -0.9% to -1.2%. Retail sales growth fell short of expectations. Additionally, the OECD lowered its global economic growth outlook, revising the US 2025 growth forecast from 2.4% to 2.2%. Fundamentals side, copper prices once again surpassed the 80,000 yuan mark, with downstream consumption under significant pressure. However, imported copper arrivals in late March were limited, and domestic arrivals were also constrained. According to SMM data on copper inventories in major regions nationwide, current national inventories are 46,400 mt lower YoY. Overall, with the downward revision of economic growth expectations and weaker-than-expected retail sales data, the US dollar index continued to operate weakly, providing support for copper prices.

       The SHFE copper 2505 contract closed at 80,260 yuan/mt. Based on the international copper 2505 contract price of 71,550 yuan/mt, its post-tax price is approximately 80,852 yuan/mt. The price spread between the SHFE copper 2505 contract and the international copper 2505 contract was -592 yuan/mt, with the spread remaining inverted and widening compared to the previous trading day.